ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageBASEMENT BOYS ban
43%45%
Mai Tai · 10 mapsnearly even -2%BASEMENT BOYS · 7 maps
AncientMai Tai ban
33%67%
Mai Tai · 5 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +34%BASEMENT BOYS · 8 maps
Dust2BASEMENT BOYS pick
43%64%
Mai Tai · 3 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +21%BASEMENT BOYS · 10 maps
NukeMai Tai pick
50%60%
Mai Tai · 2 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%BASEMENT BOYS · 11 maps
Defaultpossible decider
33%40%
Mai Tai · 11 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +7%BASEMENT BOYS · 1 map
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS ban
40%56%
Mai Tai · 1 mapedge BASEMENT BOYS +16%BASEMENT BOYS · 5 maps
InfernoMai Tai ban
50%40%
Mai Tai · 0 mapsedge Mai Tai +10%BASEMENT BOYS · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMai Tai remove Inferno
2. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Mirage
3. PickMai Tai take Nuke
4. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Dust2
5. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Anubis
6. BanMai Tai remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (33% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed14:16
Mai Tai 50%BASEMENT BOYS 50%
The model gave 50% on Mai Tai — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Nukeprediction correct3:13
Mai Tai 37%BASEMENT BOYS 63%
The model gave 63% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 61%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2