Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Permitta#103 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMai Tai pick
42%50%
Mai Tai · 15 mapsedge Permitta +8%Permitta · 4 maps
AncientPermitta ban
42%27%
Mai Tai · 8 mapsedge Mai Tai +15%Permitta · 7 maps
Defaultpossible decider
35%40%
Mai Tai · 13 mapsedge Permitta +5%Permitta · 1 map
NukePermitta pick
33%44%
Mai Tai · 5 mapsedge Permitta +11%Permitta · 5 maps
AnubisMai Tai ban
33%63%
Mai Tai · 5 mapsedge Permitta +30%Permitta · 4 maps
CacheMai Tai ban
50%67%
Mai Tai · 4 mapsedge Permitta +17%Permitta · 5 maps
Dust2Permitta ban
38%33%
Mai Tai · 4 mapsedge Mai Tai +5%Permitta · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMai Tai remove Anubis
2. BanPermitta remove Dust2
3. PickMai Tai take Mirage
4. PickPermitta take Nuke
5. BanPermitta remove Ancient
6. BanMai Tai remove Cache
DeciderDefault (35% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed1:0
Mai Tai 45%Permitta 55%
The model gave 55% on Permitta — the map was taken by Mai Tai.
Model check result
Model favoritePermitta · 54%
Series resultMai Tai 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1