CCT 2026 Europe Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
MANA#86 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ASTRAL#71 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMANA pick
67%67%
MANA · 2 mapsnearly even +0%ASTRAL · 2 maps
AncientASTRAL pick
50%50%
MANA · 0 mapsnearly even +0%ASTRAL · 2 maps
AnubisASTRAL ban
50%50%
MANA · 2 mapsnearly even +0%ASTRAL · 0 maps
InfernoASTRAL ban
50%40%
MANA · 0 mapsedge MANA +10%ASTRAL · 1 map
NukeMANA ban
50%60%
MANA · 0 mapsedge ASTRAL +10%ASTRAL · 1 map
OverpassMANA ban
40%50%
MANA · 1 mapedge ASTRAL +10%ASTRAL · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMANA remove Overpass
2. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
3. PickMANA take Mirage
4. PickASTRAL take Ancient
5. BanASTRAL remove Anubis
6. BanMANA remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
MANA 53%ASTRAL 47%
The model gave 53% on MANA — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Ancientprediction correct7:13
MANA 47%ASTRAL 53%
The model gave 53% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Model check result
Model favoriteASTRAL · 52%
Series resultASTRAL 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2