ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Arcade#198 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoMARKandLARRY ban
33%67%
MARKandLARRY · 2 mapsedge Arcade +34%Arcade · 8 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%42%
MARKandLARRY · 2 mapsedge MARKandLARRY +8%Arcade · 8 maps
NukeArcade ban
60%33%
MARKandLARRY · 1 mapedge MARKandLARRY +27%Arcade · 8 maps
CacheArcade pick
40%60%
MARKandLARRY · 1 mapedge Arcade +20%Arcade · 6 maps
Dust2MARKandLARRY pick
50%33%
MARKandLARRY · 2 mapsedge MARKandLARRY +17%Arcade · 5 maps
AncientArcade ban
50%33%
MARKandLARRY · 0 mapsedge MARKandLARRY +17%Arcade · 2 maps
AnubisMARKandLARRY ban
40%50%
MARKandLARRY · 1 mapedge Arcade +10%Arcade · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMARKandLARRY remove Anubis
2. BanArcade remove Ancient
3. PickMARKandLARRY take Dust2
4. PickArcade take Cache
5. BanArcade remove Nuke
6. BanMARKandLARRY remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (50% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct8:13
MARKandLARRY 28%Arcade 72%
The model gave 72% on Arcade — the map was taken by Arcade.
Mirageprediction missed5:13
MARKandLARRY 61%Arcade 39%
The model gave 61% on MARKandLARRY — the map was taken by Arcade.
Model check result
Model favoriteArcade · 59%
Series resultArcade 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2