DFRAG Open Series 5 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
DXA#220 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2DXA ban
43%50%
MARKandLARRY · 3 mapsedge DXA +7%DXA · 2 maps
InfernoMARKandLARRY pick
43%40%
MARKandLARRY · 3 mapsnearly even +3%DXA · 1 map
AncientDXA pick
50%57%
MARKandLARRY · 0 mapsedge DXA +7%DXA · 3 maps
MirageDXA ban
43%50%
MARKandLARRY · 3 mapsedge DXA +7%DXA · 0 maps
NukeMARKandLARRY ban
43%50%
MARKandLARRY · 3 mapsedge DXA +7%DXA · 0 maps
Overpasspossible decider
60%50%
MARKandLARRY · 1 mapedge MARKandLARRY +10%DXA · 2 maps
AnubisMARKandLARRY ban
40%40%
MARKandLARRY · 1 mapnearly even +0%DXA · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMARKandLARRY remove Anubis
2. BanDXA remove Mirage
3. PickMARKandLARRY take Inferno
4. PickDXA take Ancient
5. BanDXA remove Dust2
6. BanMARKandLARRY remove Nuke
DeciderOverpass (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed16:13
MARKandLARRY 47%DXA 53%
The model gave 53% on DXA — the map was taken by MARKandLARRY.
Infernoprediction missed5:13
MARKandLARRY 56%DXA 44%
The model gave 56% on MARKandLARRY — the map was taken by DXA.
Overpassprediction missed4:13
MARKandLARRY 60%DXA 40%
The model gave 60% on MARKandLARRY — the map was taken by DXA.
Model check result
Model favoriteDXA · 54%
Series resultDXA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3