ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoMARKandLARRY ban
33%63%
MARKandLARRY · 2 mapsedge LFO 8 +30%LFO 8 · 4 maps
NukeMARKandLARRY ban
60%50%
MARKandLARRY · 1 mapedge MARKandLARRY +10%LFO 8 · 4 maps
AncientLFO 8 pick
50%43%
MARKandLARRY · 0 mapsedge MARKandLARRY +7%LFO 8 · 3 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%57%
MARKandLARRY · 0 mapsedge LFO 8 +7%LFO 8 · 3 maps
Dust2LFO 8 ban
60%33%
MARKandLARRY · 1 mapedge MARKandLARRY +27%LFO 8 · 2 maps
MirageLFO 8 ban
50%40%
MARKandLARRY · 2 mapsedge MARKandLARRY +10%LFO 8 · 1 map
DefaultMARKandLARRY pick
50%33%
MARKandLARRY · 0 mapsedge MARKandLARRY +17%LFO 8 · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMARKandLARRY remove Inferno
2. BanLFO 8 remove Dust2
3. PickMARKandLARRY take Default
4. PickLFO 8 take Ancient
5. BanLFO 8 remove Mirage
6. BanMARKandLARRY remove Nuke
DeciderCache (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct9:13
MARKandLARRY 40%LFO 8 60%
The model gave 60% on LFO 8 — the map was taken by LFO 8.
Dust2prediction missed3:13
MARKandLARRY 77%LFO 8 23%
The model gave 77% on MARKandLARRY — the map was taken by LFO 8.
Model check result
Model favoriteMARKandLARRY · 50%
Series resultLFO 8 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2