FRAG TAP Reloaded 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#82 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Chicken Coop#151 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoChicken Coop pick
63%67%
Marsborne · 4 mapsnearly even -4%Chicken Coop · 5 maps
AncientMarsborne pick
71%50%
Marsborne · 3 mapsedge Marsborne +21%Chicken Coop · 2 maps
Dust2Marsborne ban
40%38%
Marsborne · 1 mapnearly even +2%Chicken Coop · 4 maps
NukeMarsborne ban
50%44%
Marsborne · 0 mapsedge Marsborne +6%Chicken Coop · 5 maps
Overpasspossible decider
60%63%
Marsborne · 1 mapnearly even -3%Chicken Coop · 4 maps
MirageChicken Coop ban
63%50%
Marsborne · 4 mapsedge Marsborne +13%Chicken Coop · 0 maps
AnubisChicken Coop ban
57%50%
Marsborne · 3 mapsedge Marsborne +7%Chicken Coop · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Nuke
2. BanChicken Coop remove Mirage
3. PickMarsborne take Ancient
4. PickChicken Coop take Inferno
5. BanChicken Coop remove Anubis
6. BanMarsborne remove Dust2
DeciderOverpass (60% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct7:13
Marsborne 44%Chicken Coop 56%
The model gave 56% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Ancientprediction missed3:13
Marsborne 74%Chicken Coop 26%
The model gave 74% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 58%
Series resultChicken Coop 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2