PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 North America Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#84 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Liquid#21 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisLiquid pick
63%67%
Marsborne · 4 mapsnearly even -4%Liquid · 8 maps
Dust2Liquid ban
58%50%
Marsborne · 8 mapsedge Marsborne +8%Liquid · 4 maps
AncientLiquid ban
67%50%
Marsborne · 11 mapsedge Marsborne +17%Liquid · 0 maps
InfernoMarsborne pick
71%60%
Marsborne · 10 mapsedge Marsborne +11%Liquid · 1 map
Nukepossible decider
63%67%
Marsborne · 4 mapsnearly even -4%Liquid · 5 maps
MirageMarsborne ban
70%67%
Marsborne · 6 mapsnearly even +3%Liquid · 2 maps
CacheMarsborne ban
40%56%
Marsborne · 1 mapedge Liquid +16%Liquid · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Cache
2. BanLiquid remove Ancient
3. PickMarsborne take Inferno
4. PickLiquid take Anubis
5. BanLiquid remove Dust2
6. BanMarsborne remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (63% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:16
Marsborne 65%Liquid 35%
The model gave 65% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Liquid.
Anubisprediction missed13:10
Marsborne 42%Liquid 58%
The model gave 58% on Liquid — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Nukeprediction correct5:13
Marsborne 45%Liquid 55%
The model gave 55% on Liquid — the map was taken by Liquid.
Model check result
Model favoriteLiquid · 78%
Series resultLiquid 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3