NSTLGA League Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#82 in the world · win 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoOvertake Sector ban
73%40%
Marsborne · 7 mapsedge Marsborne +33%Overtake Sector · 1 map
MirageMarsborne pick
60%50%
Marsborne · 6 mapsedge Marsborne +10%Overtake Sector · 2 maps
AncientOvertake Sector ban
56%33%
Marsborne · 5 mapsedge Marsborne +23%Overtake Sector · 2 maps
Overpasspossible decider
63%60%
Marsborne · 4 mapsnearly even +3%Overtake Sector · 1 map
AnubisMarsborne ban
57%60%
Marsborne · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Overtake Sector · 1 map
Dust2Marsborne ban
40%40%
Marsborne · 1 mapnearly even +0%Overtake Sector · 1 map
DefaultOvertake Sector pick
40%50%
Marsborne · 1 mapedge Overtake Sector +10%Overtake Sector · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Dust2
2. BanOvertake Sector remove Inferno
3. PickMarsborne take Mirage
4. PickOvertake Sector take Default
5. BanOvertake Sector remove Ancient
6. BanMarsborne remove Anubis
DeciderOverpass (63% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
Marsborne 57%Overtake Sector 43%
The model gave 57% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
Marsborne 82%Overtake Sector 18%
The model gave 82% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 84%
Series resultMarsborne 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2