ESEA Season 58 North America Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#82 in the world · win 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMarsborne pick
63%50%
Marsborne · 15 mapsedge Marsborne +13%Sharp · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%50%
Marsborne · 11 mapsedge Marsborne +10%Sharp · 0 maps
Dust2Marsborne ban
58%50%
Marsborne · 8 mapsedge Marsborne +8%Sharp · 0 maps
MirageMarsborne ban
67%50%
Marsborne · 8 mapsedge Marsborne +17%Sharp · 0 maps
AnubisSharp ban
70%50%
Marsborne · 6 mapsedge Marsborne +20%Sharp · 0 maps
NukeSharp pick
50%50%
Marsborne · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Sharp · 0 maps
DefaultSharp ban
63%50%
Marsborne · 4 mapsedge Marsborne +13%Sharp · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Mirage
2. BanSharp remove Anubis
3. PickMarsborne take Ancient
4. PickSharp take Nuke
5. BanSharp remove Default
6. BanMarsborne remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:3
Marsborne 47%Sharp 53%
The model gave 53% on Sharp — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
Marsborne 63%Sharp 37%
The model gave 63% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 71%
Series resultMarsborne 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2