Parken Challenger Championship Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
MASONIC#187 in the world · win 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PURE#126 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientPURE ban
57%50%
MASONIC · 3 mapsedge MASONIC +7%PURE · 0 maps
Dust2MASONIC pick
50%40%
MASONIC · 2 mapsedge MASONIC +10%PURE · 1 map
InfernoPURE ban
50%50%
MASONIC · 2 mapsnearly even +0%PURE · 0 maps
NukePURE pick
40%60%
MASONIC · 1 mapedge PURE +20%PURE · 1 map
MirageMASONIC ban
50%40%
MASONIC · 0 mapsedge MASONIC +10%PURE · 1 map
OverpassMASONIC ban
40%50%
MASONIC · 1 mapedge PURE +10%PURE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMASONIC remove Mirage
2. BanPURE remove Ancient
3. PickMASONIC take Dust2
4. PickPURE take Nuke
5. BanPURE remove Inferno
6. BanMASONIC remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed19:16
MASONIC 28%PURE 72%
The model gave 72% on PURE — the map was taken by MASONIC.
Ancientprediction missed22:25
MASONIC 60%PURE 40%
The model gave 60% on MASONIC — the map was taken by PURE.
Anubisprediction correct13:9
MASONIC 50%PURE 50%
The model gave 50% on MASONIC — the map was taken by MASONIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteMASONIC · 53%
Series resultMASONIC 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3