ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
MAYBE#176 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMAYBE pick
43%40%
MAYBE · 19 mapsnearly even +3%LFO 10 · 6 maps
Ancientpossible decider
47%43%
MAYBE · 13 mapsnearly even +4%LFO 10 · 3 maps
Dust2LFO 10 ban
36%25%
MAYBE · 10 mapsedge MAYBE +11%LFO 10 · 4 maps
CacheMAYBE ban
38%57%
MAYBE · 9 mapsedge LFO 10 +19%LFO 10 · 3 maps
DefaultLFO 10 pick
43%67%
MAYBE · 3 mapsedge LFO 10 +24%LFO 10 · 2 maps
NukeLFO 10 ban
38%40%
MAYBE · 4 mapsnearly even -2%LFO 10 · 1 map
AnubisMAYBE ban
50%50%
MAYBE · 4 mapsnearly even +0%LFO 10 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMAYBE remove Cache
2. BanLFO 10 remove Nuke
3. PickMAYBE take Mirage
4. PickLFO 10 take Default
5. BanLFO 10 remove Dust2
6. BanMAYBE remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (47% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:16
MAYBE 60%LFO 10 40%
The model gave 60% on MAYBE — the map was taken by LFO 10.
Mirageprediction correct13:6
MAYBE 57%LFO 10 43%
The model gave 57% on MAYBE — the map was taken by MAYBE.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
MAYBE 47%LFO 10 53%
The model gave 53% on LFO 10 — the map was taken by LFO 10.
Model check result
Model favoriteLFO 10 · 64%
Series resultLFO 10 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3