NODWIN Clutch Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
megoshort#179 in the world · win 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Julie&Cie pick
38%40%
megoshort · 4 mapsnearly even -2%Julie&Cie · 6 maps
MirageJulie&Cie ban
33%25%
megoshort · 5 mapsedge megoshort +8%Julie&Cie · 4 maps
Defaultmegoshort ban
33%57%
megoshort · 5 mapsedge Julie&Cie +24%Julie&Cie · 3 maps
AncientJulie&Cie ban
50%33%
megoshort · 0 mapsedge megoshort +17%Julie&Cie · 5 maps
Anubismegoshort pick
60%43%
megoshort · 1 mapedge megoshort +17%Julie&Cie · 3 maps
Infernomegoshort ban
50%38%
megoshort · 0 mapsedge megoshort +12%Julie&Cie · 4 maps
Overpasspossible decider
40%50%
megoshort · 1 mapedge Julie&Cie +10%Julie&Cie · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmegoshort remove Default
2. BanJulie&Cie remove Mirage
3. Pickmegoshort take Anubis
4. PickJulie&Cie take Dust2
5. BanJulie&Cie remove Ancient
6. Banmegoshort remove Inferno
DeciderOverpass (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
megoshort 44%Julie&Cie 56%
The model gave 56% on Julie&Cie — the map was taken by megoshort.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
megoshort 69%Julie&Cie 31%
The model gave 69% on megoshort — the map was taken by megoshort.
Model check result
Model favoritemegoshort · 55%
Series resultmegoshort 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2