CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
megoshort#200 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Misa#124 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2megoshort pick
60%44%
megoshort · 6 mapsedge megoshort +16%Misa · 28 maps
MirageMisa ban
50%40%
megoshort · 8 mapsedge megoshort +10%Misa · 16 maps
AnubisMisa pick
40%48%
megoshort · 1 mapedge Misa +8%Misa · 21 map
CacheMisa ban
67%38%
megoshort · 2 mapsedge megoshort +29%Misa · 17 maps
Infernomegoshort ban
38%57%
megoshort · 4 mapsedge Misa +19%Misa · 10 maps
Nukemegoshort ban
50%50%
megoshort · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Misa · 14 maps
Defaultpossible decider
38%33%
megoshort · 4 mapsedge megoshort +5%Misa · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmegoshort remove Nuke
2. BanMisa remove Mirage
3. Pickmegoshort take Dust2
4. PickMisa take Anubis
5. BanMisa remove Cache
6. Banmegoshort remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (38% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
megoshort 63%Misa 37%
The model gave 63% on megoshort — the map was taken by Misa.
Cacheprediction correct19:16
megoshort 74%Misa 26%
The model gave 74% on megoshort — the map was taken by megoshort.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
megoshort 66%Misa 34%
The model gave 66% on megoshort — the map was taken by Misa.
Model check result
Model favoriteMisa · 61%
Series resultMisa 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3