CCT 2026 Europe Series 11 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
megoshort#179 in the world · win 2:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Noir Verse#124 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageNoir Verse pick
45%58%
megoshort · 16 mapsedge Noir Verse +13%Noir Verse · 20 maps
AncientNoir Verse ban
59%52%
megoshort · 13 mapsedge megoshort +7%Noir Verse · 17 maps
Dust2Noir Verse ban
50%50%
megoshort · 10 mapsnearly even +0%Noir Verse · 20 maps
Anubismegoshort ban
50%45%
megoshort · 4 mapsedge megoshort +5%Noir Verse · 18 maps
Cachemegoshort pick
55%50%
megoshort · 7 mapsedge megoshort +5%Noir Verse · 14 maps
Defaultpossible decider
55%41%
megoshort · 7 mapsedge megoshort +14%Noir Verse · 13 maps
Nukemegoshort ban
50%47%
megoshort · 0 mapsnearly even +3%Noir Verse · 13 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmegoshort remove Nuke
2. BanNoir Verse remove Ancient
3. Pickmegoshort take Cache
4. PickNoir Verse take Mirage
5. BanNoir Verse remove Dust2
6. Banmegoshort remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (55% / 41%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed10:13
megoshort 52%Noir Verse 48%
The model gave 52% on megoshort — the map was taken by Noir Verse.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
megoshort 59%Noir Verse 41%
The model gave 59% on megoshort — the map was taken by megoshort.
Cacheprediction correct16:12
megoshort 55%Noir Verse 45%
The model gave 55% on megoshort — the map was taken by megoshort.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoir Verse · 51%
Series resultmegoshort 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3