ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMEIA NOITE ban
29%40%
MEIA NOITE · 13 mapsedge QUINTESSÊNCIA +11%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 6 maps
Dust2QUINTESSÊNCIA pick
50%60%
MEIA NOITE · 12 mapsedge QUINTESSÊNCIA +10%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 6 maps
MirageMEIA NOITE pick
38%55%
MEIA NOITE · 9 mapsedge QUINTESSÊNCIA +17%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 7 maps
CacheMEIA NOITE ban
33%77%
MEIA NOITE · 5 mapsedge QUINTESSÊNCIA +44%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 9 maps
Defaultpossible decider
67%60%
MEIA NOITE · 8 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +7%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 1 map
NukeQUINTESSÊNCIA ban
50%60%
MEIA NOITE · 8 mapsedge QUINTESSÊNCIA +10%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 1 map
InfernoQUINTESSÊNCIA ban
57%43%
MEIA NOITE · 3 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +14%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMEIA NOITE remove Cache
2. BanQUINTESSÊNCIA remove Nuke
3. PickMEIA NOITE take Mirage
4. PickQUINTESSÊNCIA take Dust2
5. BanQUINTESSÊNCIA remove Inferno
6. BanMEIA NOITE remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (67% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed10:13
MEIA NOITE 61%QUINTESSÊNCIA 39%
The model gave 61% on MEIA NOITE — the map was taken by QUINTESSÊNCIA.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
MEIA NOITE 41%QUINTESSÊNCIA 59%
The model gave 59% on QUINTESSÊNCIA — the map was taken by MEIA NOITE.
Dust2prediction missed13:8
MEIA NOITE 40%QUINTESSÊNCIA 60%
The model gave 60% on QUINTESSÊNCIA — the map was taken by MEIA NOITE.
Model check result
Model favoriteQUINTESSÊNCIA · 60%
Series resultMEIA NOITE 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3