ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
mellren#118 in the world · win 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BERG#210 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBERG pick
60%46%
mellren · 6 mapsedge mellren +14%BERG · 9 maps
Miragemellren pick
75%45%
mellren · 8 mapsedge mellren +30%BERG · 7 maps
Nukemellren ban
40%38%
mellren · 1 mapnearly even +2%BERG · 9 maps
Infernopossible decider
56%57%
mellren · 5 mapsnearly even -1%BERG · 3 maps
AnubisBERG ban
71%38%
mellren · 3 mapsedge mellren +33%BERG · 4 maps
Dust2BERG ban
50%50%
mellren · 6 mapsnearly even +0%BERG · 0 maps
Defaultmellren ban
50%60%
mellren · 0 mapsedge BERG +10%BERG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmellren remove Nuke
2. BanBERG remove Dust2
3. Pickmellren take Mirage
4. PickBERG take Ancient
5. BanBERG remove Anubis
6. Banmellren remove Default
DeciderInferno (56% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
mellren 80%BERG 20%
The model gave 80% on mellren — the map was taken by mellren.
Infernoprediction missed13:9
mellren 45%BERG 55%
The model gave 55% on BERG — the map was taken by mellren.
Model check result
Model favoritemellren · 72%
Series resultmellren 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2