CCT 2026 Europe Series 11 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
mellren#94 in the world · win 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Honvéd#144 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemellren pick
64%45%
mellren · 29 mapsedge mellren +19%Honvéd · 29 maps
Dust2Honvéd pick
56%42%
mellren · 12 mapsedge mellren +14%Honvéd · 34 maps
InfernoHonvéd ban
53%38%
mellren · 15 mapsedge mellren +15%Honvéd · 17 maps
Ancientpossible decider
73%50%
mellren · 18 mapsedge mellren +23%Honvéd · 12 maps
Defaultmellren ban
50%56%
mellren · 4 mapsedge Honvéd +6%Honvéd · 14 maps
Nukemellren ban
19%43%
mellren · 12 mapsedge Honvéd +24%Honvéd · 3 maps
AnubisHonvéd ban
73%36%
mellren · 7 mapsedge mellren +37%Honvéd · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmellren remove Nuke
2. BanHonvéd remove Anubis
3. Pickmellren take Mirage
4. PickHonvéd take Dust2
5. BanHonvéd remove Inferno
6. Banmellren remove Default
DeciderAncient (73% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:5
mellren 61%Honvéd 39%
The model gave 61% on mellren — the map was taken by mellren.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
mellren 70%Honvéd 30%
The model gave 70% on mellren — the map was taken by mellren.
Model check result
Model favoritemellren · 66%
Series resultmellren 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2