ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
mellren#94 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KUUSAMO#177 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemellren pick
67%50%
mellren · 14 mapsedge mellren +17%KUUSAMO · 2 maps
Infernopossible decider
64%33%
mellren · 10 mapsedge mellren +31%KUUSAMO · 2 maps
Dust2KUUSAMO ban
55%29%
mellren · 7 mapsedge mellren +26%KUUSAMO · 3 maps
Nukemellren ban
25%56%
mellren · 4 mapsedge KUUSAMO +31%KUUSAMO · 5 maps
Ancientmellren ban
55%40%
mellren · 7 mapsedge mellren +15%KUUSAMO · 1 map
AnubisKUUSAMO ban
71%50%
mellren · 3 mapsedge mellren +21%KUUSAMO · 0 maps
CacheKUUSAMO pick
50%57%
mellren · 0 mapsedge KUUSAMO +7%KUUSAMO · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmellren remove Nuke
2. BanKUUSAMO remove Anubis
3. Pickmellren take Mirage
4. PickKUUSAMO take Cache
5. BanKUUSAMO remove Dust2
6. Banmellren remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (64% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
mellren 19%KUUSAMO 81%
The model gave 81% on KUUSAMO — the map was taken by KUUSAMO.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
mellren 80%KUUSAMO 20%
The model gave 80% on mellren — the map was taken by KUUSAMO.
Model check result
Model favoritemellren · 61%
Series resultKUUSAMO 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2