NODWIN Clutch Series 13 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
mellren#94 in the world · win 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LPH#150 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLPH ban
66%67%
mellren · 25 mapsnearly even -1%LPH · 2 maps
Ancientmellren pick
72%53%
mellren · 14 mapsedge mellren +19%LPH · 11 maps
Nukemellren ban
19%53%
mellren · 12 mapsedge LPH +34%LPH · 11 maps
InfernoLPH pick
59%73%
mellren · 13 mapsedge LPH +14%LPH · 7 maps
Dust2mellren ban
62%55%
mellren · 9 mapsedge mellren +7%LPH · 7 maps
AnubisLPH ban
67%44%
mellren · 5 mapsedge mellren +23%LPH · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%50%
mellren · 4 mapsnearly even +0%LPH · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmellren remove Nuke
2. BanLPH remove Mirage
3. Pickmellren take Ancient
4. PickLPH take Inferno
5. BanLPH remove Anubis
6. Banmellren remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:7
mellren 32%LPH 68%
The model gave 68% on LPH — the map was taken by mellren.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
mellren 72%LPH 28%
The model gave 72% on mellren — the map was taken by LPH.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
mellren 71%LPH 29%
The model gave 71% on mellren — the map was taken by mellren.
Model check result
Model favoritemellren · 53%
Series resultmellren 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3