ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
mellren#94 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Permitta#103 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemellren pick
68%53%
mellren · 15 mapsedge mellren +15%Permitta · 13 maps
Nukemellren ban
20%48%
mellren · 6 mapsedge Permitta +28%Permitta · 21 map
AncientPermitta pick
62%40%
mellren · 9 mapsedge mellren +22%Permitta · 16 maps
Dust2Permitta ban
55%30%
mellren · 7 mapsedge mellren +25%Permitta · 6 maps
Anubismellren ban
71%46%
mellren · 3 mapsedge mellren +25%Permitta · 9 maps
InfernoPermitta ban
60%50%
mellren · 11 mapsedge mellren +10%Permitta · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
57%33%
mellren · 3 mapsedge mellren +24%Permitta · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmellren remove Nuke
2. BanPermitta remove Dust2
3. Pickmellren take Mirage
4. PickPermitta take Ancient
5. BanPermitta remove Inferno
6. Banmellren remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (57% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
mellren 73%Permitta 27%
The model gave 73% on mellren — the map was taken by Permitta.
Model check result
Model favoritemellren · 55%
Series resultPermitta 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1