BetBoom Storm Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
METANOIA Wolves#210 in the world · win 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Procyon#119 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2METANOIA Wolves pick
47%43%
METANOIA Wolves · 13 mapsnearly even +4%Procyon · 10 maps
MirageMETANOIA Wolves ban
22%42%
METANOIA Wolves · 5 mapsedge Procyon +20%Procyon · 8 maps
AncientProcyon ban
55%43%
METANOIA Wolves · 7 mapsedge METANOIA Wolves +12%Procyon · 3 maps
NukeMETANOIA Wolves ban
44%25%
METANOIA Wolves · 5 mapsedge METANOIA Wolves +19%Procyon · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
44%50%
METANOIA Wolves · 5 mapsedge Procyon +6%Procyon · 2 maps
InfernoProcyon pick
38%57%
METANOIA Wolves · 4 mapsedge Procyon +19%Procyon · 3 maps
AnubisProcyon ban
33%33%
METANOIA Wolves · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Procyon · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Mirage
2. BanProcyon remove Ancient
3. PickMETANOIA Wolves take Dust2
4. PickProcyon take Inferno
5. BanProcyon remove Anubis
6. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (44% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct9:13
METANOIA Wolves 29%Procyon 71%
The model gave 71% on Procyon — the map was taken by Procyon.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
METANOIA Wolves 64%Procyon 36%
The model gave 64% on METANOIA Wolves — the map was taken by METANOIA Wolves.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
METANOIA Wolves 54%Procyon 46%
The model gave 54% on METANOIA Wolves — the map was taken by METANOIA Wolves.
Model check result
Model favoriteProcyon · 50%
Series resultMETANOIA Wolves 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3