Tipsport Open Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Metizport#52 in the world · win 2:1series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Optibet#221 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeMetizport pick
53%50%
Metizport · 15 mapsnearly even +3%Optibet · 0 maps
InfernoOptibet ban
63%50%
Metizport · 12 mapsedge Metizport +13%Optibet · 0 maps
AncientOptibet pick
64%57%
Metizport · 7 mapsedge Metizport +7%Optibet · 3 maps
AnubisMetizport ban
55%57%
Metizport · 7 mapsnearly even -2%Optibet · 3 maps
MirageMetizport ban
54%50%
Metizport · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Optibet · 0 maps
CacheOptibet ban
50%50%
Metizport · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Optibet · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMetizport remove Anubis
2. BanOptibet remove Cache
3. PickMetizport take Nuke
4. PickOptibet take Ancient
5. BanOptibet remove Inferno
6. BanMetizport remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
Metizport 54%Optibet 46%
The model gave 54% on Metizport — the map was taken by Optibet.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
Metizport 56%Optibet 44%
The model gave 56% on Metizport — the map was taken by Metizport.
Mirageprediction correct13:2
Metizport 54%Optibet 46%
The model gave 54% on Metizport — the map was taken by Metizport.
Model check result
Model favoriteMetizport · 77%
Series resultMetizport 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3