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CCT 2026 South America Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
MIBR fe#203 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Sementes do Mal#245 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheSementes do Mal pick
33%30%
MIBR fe · 2 mapsnearly even +3%Sementes do Mal · 6 maps
AncientSementes do Mal ban
57%50%
MIBR fe · 3 mapsedge MIBR fe +7%Sementes do Mal · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%50%
MIBR fe · 1 mapedge MIBR fe +10%Sementes do Mal · 4 maps
Dust2Sementes do Mal ban
40%25%
MIBR fe · 1 mapedge MIBR fe +15%Sementes do Mal · 4 maps
MirageMIBR fe ban
50%22%
MIBR fe · 0 mapsedge MIBR fe +28%Sementes do Mal · 5 maps
AnubisMIBR fe pick
50%50%
MIBR fe · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Sementes do Mal · 0 maps
InfernoMIBR fe ban
50%50%
MIBR fe · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Sementes do Mal · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMIBR fe remove Mirage
2. BanSementes do Mal remove Ancient
3. PickMIBR fe take Anubis
4. PickSementes do Mal take Cache
5. BanSementes do Mal remove Dust2
6. BanMIBR fe remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed4:13
MIBR fe 60%Sementes do Mal 40%
The model gave 60% on MIBR fe — the map was taken by Sementes do Mal.
Cacheprediction correct13:8
MIBR fe 51%Sementes do Mal 49%
The model gave 51% on MIBR fe — the map was taken by MIBR fe.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
MIBR fe 50%Sementes do Mal 50%
The model gave 50% on MIBR fe — the map was taken by MIBR fe.
Model check result
Model favoriteMIBR fe · 52%
Series resultMIBR fe 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3