FISSURE Playground 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
MIBR#28 in the world · win 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Alliance#50 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoAlliance pick
64%76%
MIBR · 7 mapsedge Alliance +12%Alliance · 13 maps
AncientMIBR ban
36%73%
MIBR · 7 mapsedge Alliance +37%Alliance · 11 maps
NukeMIBR pick
62%64%
MIBR · 9 mapsnearly even -2%Alliance · 7 maps
MirageAlliance ban
54%50%
MIBR · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Alliance · 0 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%43%
MIBR · 2 mapsedge MIBR +7%Alliance · 3 maps
Dust2MIBR ban
50%44%
MIBR · 0 mapsedge MIBR +6%Alliance · 5 maps
CacheAlliance ban
63%50%
MIBR · 4 mapsedge MIBR +13%Alliance · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMIBR remove Dust2
2. BanAlliance remove Mirage
3. PickMIBR take Nuke
4. PickAlliance take Inferno
5. BanAlliance remove Cache
6. BanMIBR remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (50% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:4
MIBR 32%Alliance 68%
The model gave 68% on Alliance — the map was taken by MIBR.
Cacheprediction correct13:9
MIBR 65%Alliance 35%
The model gave 65% on MIBR — the map was taken by MIBR.
Model check result
Model favoriteMIBR · 63%
Series resultMIBR 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2