Esports World Cup 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
MIBR#12 in the world · loss 6:13series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 6:13
Astralis#15 in the world · win 13:6The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
36%58%
MIBR · 7 mapsedge Astralis +22%Astralis · 8 maps
NukeAstralis ban
64%25%
MIBR · 7 mapsedge MIBR +39%Astralis · 8 maps
MirageAstralis ban
57%50%
MIBR · 10 mapsedge MIBR +7%Astralis · 4 maps
InfernoMIBR ban
50%67%
MIBR · 6 mapsedge Astralis +17%Astralis · 2 maps
CacheMIBR ban
60%57%
MIBR · 1 mapnearly even +3%Astralis · 3 maps
Dust2MIBR ban
50%25%
MIBR · 0 mapsedge MIBR +25%Astralis · 4 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
71%50%
MIBR · 3 mapsedge MIBR +21%Astralis · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMIBR remove Dust2
2. BanAstralis remove Anubis
3. BanMIBR remove Cache
4. BanAstralis remove Nuke
5. BanMIBR remove Inferno
6. BanAstralis remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (36% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct6:13
MIBR 33%Astralis 67%
The model gave 67% on Astralis — the map was taken by Astralis.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 67%
Series resultAstralis 6:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1