IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
MIBR#12 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
B8#15 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
50%55%
MIBR · 4 mapsedge B8 +5%B8 · 7 maps
AncientB8 pick
50%60%
MIBR · 2 mapsedge B8 +10%B8 · 6 maps
InfernoMIBR ban
38%67%
MIBR · 4 mapsedge B8 +29%B8 · 2 maps
NukeMIBR pick
67%43%
MIBR · 2 mapsedge MIBR +24%B8 · 3 maps
OverpassB8 ban
40%57%
MIBR · 1 mapedge B8 +17%B8 · 3 maps
Dust2MIBR ban
50%43%
MIBR · 0 mapsedge MIBR +7%B8 · 3 maps
AnubisB8 ban
67%50%
MIBR · 2 mapsedge MIBR +17%B8 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMIBR remove Dust2
2. BanB8 remove Anubis
3. PickMIBR take Nuke
4. PickB8 take Ancient
5. BanB8 remove Overpass
6. BanMIBR remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (50% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
MIBR 42%B8 58%
The model gave 58% on B8 — the map was taken by MIBR.
Nukeprediction missed10:13
MIBR 75%B8 25%
The model gave 75% on MIBR — the map was taken by B8.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
MIBR 40%B8 60%
The model gave 60% on B8 — the map was taken by B8.
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 · 54%
Series resultB8 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3