IEM Beijing 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
MIBR#28 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Eternal Fire#47 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
58%50%
MIBR · 8 mapsedge MIBR +8%Eternal Fire · 8 maps
AncientEternal Fire pick
33%64%
MIBR · 5 mapsedge Eternal Fire +31%Eternal Fire · 7 maps
InfernoEternal Fire ban
45%56%
MIBR · 7 mapsedge Eternal Fire +11%Eternal Fire · 5 maps
NukeEternal Fire ban
62%33%
MIBR · 9 mapsedge MIBR +29%Eternal Fire · 2 maps
CacheMIBR ban
67%50%
MIBR · 2 mapsedge MIBR +17%Eternal Fire · 6 maps
Dust2MIBR ban
50%50%
MIBR · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Eternal Fire · 8 maps
AnubisMIBR pick
67%60%
MIBR · 2 mapsedge MIBR +7%Eternal Fire · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMIBR remove Dust2
2. BanEternal Fire remove Nuke
3. PickMIBR take Anubis
4. PickEternal Fire take Ancient
5. BanEternal Fire remove Inferno
6. BanMIBR remove Cache
DeciderMirage (58% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct16:19
MIBR 20%Eternal Fire 80%
The model gave 80% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Infernoprediction missed13:8
MIBR 43%Eternal Fire 57%
The model gave 57% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by MIBR.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
MIBR 58%Eternal Fire 42%
The model gave 58% on MIBR — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favoriteMIBR · 72%
Series resultEternal Fire 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3