StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 South America Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
MIBR#12 in the world · win 2:1series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LP#107 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
44%64%
MIBR · 5 mapsedge LP +20%LP · 18 maps
AncientLP pick
40%68%
MIBR · 6 mapsedge LP +28%LP · 15 maps
MirageLP ban
50%47%
MIBR · 8 mapsnearly even +3%LP · 11 maps
NukeMIBR pick
56%63%
MIBR · 5 mapsedge LP +7%LP · 12 maps
Dust2MIBR ban
50%59%
MIBR · 0 mapsedge LP +9%LP · 13 maps
OverpassLP ban
40%50%
MIBR · 1 mapedge LP +10%LP · 4 maps
CacheMIBR ban
50%75%
MIBR · 0 mapsedge LP +25%LP · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMIBR remove Dust2
2. BanLP remove Mirage
3. PickMIBR take Nuke
4. PickLP take Ancient
5. BanLP remove Overpass
6. BanMIBR remove Cache
DeciderInferno (44% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct7:13
MIBR 21%LP 79%
The model gave 79% on LP — the map was taken by LP.
Mirageprediction correct19:17
MIBR 56%LP 44%
The model gave 56% on MIBR — the map was taken by MIBR.
Nukeprediction missed13:2
MIBR 43%LP 57%
The model gave 57% on LP — the map was taken by MIBR.
Model check result
Model favoriteMIBR · 75%
Series resultMIBR 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3