IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
MIBR#12 in the world · loss 6:13series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 6:13
THUNDER dOWNUNDER#128 in the world · win 13:6The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Anubispossible decider
60%75%
MIBR · 1 mapedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +15%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 8 maps
Dust2MIBR ban
50%50%
MIBR · 0 mapsnearly even +0%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 6 maps
InfernoTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
40%63%
MIBR · 1 mapedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +23%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 4 maps
NukeMIBR ban
50%56%
MIBR · 0 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +6%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 5 maps
AncientTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
50%50%
MIBR · 2 mapsnearly even +0%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 2 maps
MirageTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
50%50%
MIBR · 2 mapsnearly even +0%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 maps
OverpassMIBR ban
40%40%
MIBR · 1 mapnearly even +0%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMIBR remove Dust2
2. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Mirage
3. BanMIBR remove Nuke
4. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Ancient
5. BanMIBR remove Overpass
6. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (60% / 75%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct6:13
MIBR 29%THUNDER dOWNUNDER 71%
The model gave 71% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Model check result
Model favoriteMIBR · 76%
Series resultTHUNDER dOWNUNDER 6:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1