ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Mindfreak#213 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rooster#196 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoMindfreak pick
42%50%
Mindfreak · 15 mapsedge Rooster +8%Rooster · 6 maps
Miragepossible decider
67%44%
Mindfreak · 8 mapsedge Mindfreak +23%Rooster · 5 maps
NukeRooster ban
42%38%
Mindfreak · 8 mapsnearly even +4%Rooster · 4 maps
AnubisRooster pick
33%56%
Mindfreak · 5 mapsedge Rooster +23%Rooster · 5 maps
Dust2Mindfreak ban
33%43%
Mindfreak · 2 mapsedge Rooster +10%Rooster · 3 maps
AncientRooster ban
43%50%
Mindfreak · 3 mapsedge Rooster +7%Rooster · 0 maps
CacheMindfreak ban
50%60%
Mindfreak · 0 mapsedge Rooster +10%Rooster · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMindfreak remove Dust2
2. BanRooster remove Ancient
3. PickMindfreak take Inferno
4. PickRooster take Anubis
5. BanRooster remove Nuke
6. BanMindfreak remove Cache
DeciderMirage (67% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
Mindfreak 57%Rooster 43%
The model gave 57% on Mindfreak — the map was taken by Rooster.
Cacheprediction correct1:13
Mindfreak 37%Rooster 63%
The model gave 63% on Rooster — the map was taken by Rooster.
Model check result
Model favoriteMindfreak · 62%
Series resultRooster 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2