ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Misa#115 in the world · win 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
6666#80 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
49%43%
Misa · 31 mapedge Misa +6%6666 · 3 maps
Anubispossible decider
52%50%
Misa · 25 mapsnearly even +2%6666 · 4 maps
Cache6666 pick
44%50%
Misa · 23 mapsedge 6666 +6%6666 · 0 maps
MirageMisa ban
46%50%
Misa · 20 mapsnearly even -4%6666 · 2 maps
Inferno6666 ban
53%17%
Misa · 13 mapsedge Misa +36%6666 · 8 maps
Nuke6666 ban
50%33%
Misa · 16 mapsedge Misa +17%6666 · 2 maps
AncientMisa ban
43%60%
Misa · 3 mapsedge 6666 +17%6666 · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMisa remove Ancient
2. Ban6666 remove Nuke
3. PickMisa take Dust2
4. Pick6666 take Cache
5. Ban6666 remove Inferno
6. BanMisa remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (52% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:9
Misa 55%6666 45%
The model gave 55% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
Misa 83%6666 17%
The model gave 83% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Model check result
Model favorite6666 · 56%
Series resultMisa 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2