ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Misa#115 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
6666#80 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
49%50%
Misa · 31 mapnearly even -1%6666 · 4 maps
Anubis6666 pick
55%50%
Misa · 27 mapsedge Misa +5%6666 · 6 maps
Cache6666 ban
45%50%
Misa · 25 mapsedge 6666 +5%6666 · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
56%15%
Misa · 14 mapsedge Misa +41%6666 · 9 maps
MirageMisa ban
44%50%
Misa · 21 mapedge 6666 +6%6666 · 2 maps
Nuke6666 ban
48%33%
Misa · 17 mapsedge Misa +15%6666 · 2 maps
AncientMisa ban
43%60%
Misa · 3 mapsedge 6666 +17%6666 · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMisa remove Ancient
2. Ban6666 remove Nuke
3. PickMisa take Dust2
4. Pick6666 take Anubis
5. Ban6666 remove Cache
6. BanMisa remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (56% / 15%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed10:13
Misa 58%6666 42%
The model gave 58% on Misa — the map was taken by 6666.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
Misa 41%6666 59%
The model gave 59% on 6666 — the map was taken by 6666.
Model check result
Model favoriteMisa · 54%
Series result6666 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2