NODWIN Clutch Series 13 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Misa#115 in the world · win 2:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Azuolas#191 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMisa ban
44%39%
Misa · 21 mapedge Misa +5%Azuolas · 14 maps
AnubisMisa pick
52%44%
Misa · 27 mapsedge Misa +8%Azuolas · 5 maps
Dust2Azuolas ban
50%29%
Misa · 28 mapsedge Misa +21%Azuolas · 3 maps
NukeAzuolas pick
45%44%
Misa · 18 mapsnearly even +1%Azuolas · 12 maps
Cachepossible decider
43%60%
Misa · 26 mapsedge Azuolas +17%Azuolas · 1 map
InfernoAzuolas ban
60%33%
Misa · 16 mapsedge Misa +27%Azuolas · 5 maps
AncientMisa ban
33%38%
Misa · 5 mapsedge Azuolas +5%Azuolas · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMisa remove Ancient
2. BanAzuolas remove Dust2
3. PickMisa take Anubis
4. PickAzuolas take Nuke
5. BanAzuolas remove Inferno
6. BanMisa remove Mirage
DeciderCache (43% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed14:16
Misa 77%Azuolas 23%
The model gave 77% on Misa — the map was taken by Azuolas.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
Misa 42%Azuolas 58%
The model gave 58% on Azuolas — the map was taken by Misa.
Anubisprediction correct13:2
Misa 57%Azuolas 43%
The model gave 57% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Model check result
Model favoriteMisa · 70%
Series resultMisa 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3