CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Misa#115 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-Sashi Academy ban
51%50%
Misa · 31 mapnearly even +1%ex-Sashi Academy · 0 maps
Mirageex-Sashi Academy pick
42%40%
Misa · 22 mapsnearly even +2%ex-Sashi Academy · 1 map
AnubisMisa pick
46%60%
Misa · 20 mapsedge ex-Sashi Academy +14%ex-Sashi Academy · 1 map
NukeMisa ban
50%60%
Misa · 16 mapsedge ex-Sashi Academy +10%ex-Sashi Academy · 1 map
Cacheex-Sashi Academy ban
40%40%
Misa · 11 mapsnearly even +0%ex-Sashi Academy · 1 map
InfernoMisa ban
50%40%
Misa · 10 mapsedge Misa +10%ex-Sashi Academy · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
45%50%
Misa · 7 mapsedge ex-Sashi Academy +5%ex-Sashi Academy · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMisa remove Nuke
2. Banex-Sashi Academy remove Dust2
3. PickMisa take Anubis
4. Pickex-Sashi Academy take Mirage
5. Banex-Sashi Academy remove Cache
6. BanMisa remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (45% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed10:13
Misa 57%ex-Sashi Academy 43%
The model gave 57% on Misa — the map was taken by ex-Sashi Academy.
Anubisprediction missed25:23
Misa 39%ex-Sashi Academy 61%
The model gave 61% on ex-Sashi Academy — the map was taken by Misa.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
Misa 52%ex-Sashi Academy 48%
The model gave 52% on Misa — the map was taken by ex-Sashi Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteMisa · 65%
Series resultex-Sashi Academy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3