ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
Misa#115 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Falcons Force#152 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
67%33%
Misa · 8 mapsedge Misa +34%Falcons Force · 5 maps
MirageFalcons Force pick
50%56%
Misa · 6 mapsedge Falcons Force +6%Falcons Force · 5 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%29%
Misa · 6 mapsedge Misa +21%Falcons Force · 3 maps
AncientMisa ban
50%36%
Misa · 0 mapsedge Misa +14%Falcons Force · 7 maps
AnubisMisa ban
38%40%
Misa · 4 mapsnearly even -2%Falcons Force · 1 map
InfernoFalcons Force ban
50%50%
Misa · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Falcons Force · 0 maps
OverpassFalcons Force ban
33%50%
Misa · 2 mapsedge Falcons Force +17%Falcons Force · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMisa remove Ancient
2. BanFalcons Force remove Overpass
3. PickMisa take Dust2
4. PickFalcons Force take Mirage
5. BanFalcons Force remove Inferno
6. BanMisa remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (50% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
Misa 42%Falcons Force 58%
The model gave 58% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
Misa 82%Falcons Force 18%
The model gave 82% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Infernoprediction missed6:13
Misa 50%Falcons Force 50%
The model gave 50% on Misa — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Model check result
Model favoriteMisa · 53%
Series resultFalcons Force 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3