ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Misa#115 in the world · win 2:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Leo#89 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
48%64%
Misa · 29 mapsedge Leo +16%Leo · 21 map
Anubispossible decider
47%33%
Misa · 13 mapsedge Misa +14%Leo · 14 maps
MirageLeo ban
39%44%
Misa · 19 mapsedge Leo +5%Leo · 5 maps
NukeLeo pick
50%54%
Misa · 14 mapsnearly even -4%Leo · 9 maps
AncientMisa ban
50%56%
Misa · 0 mapsedge Leo +6%Leo · 12 maps
InfernoLeo ban
54%60%
Misa · 9 mapsedge Leo +6%Leo · 1 map
CacheMisa ban
33%50%
Misa · 8 mapsedge Leo +17%Leo · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMisa remove Ancient
2. BanLeo remove Mirage
3. PickMisa take Dust2
4. PickLeo take Nuke
5. BanLeo remove Inferno
6. BanMisa remove Cache
DeciderAnubis (47% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed16:13
Misa 37%Leo 63%
The model gave 63% on Leo — the map was taken by Misa.
Nukeprediction correct1:13
Misa 43%Leo 57%
The model gave 57% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Cacheprediction missed13:8
Misa 33%Leo 67%
The model gave 67% on Leo — the map was taken by Misa.
Model check result
Model favoriteLeo · 56%
Series resultMisa 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3