ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Misa#115 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:1
The Last Resort#159 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
51%45%
Misa · 31 mapedge Misa +6%The Last Resort · 7 maps
NukeThe Last Resort pick
50%53%
Misa · 16 mapsnearly even -3%The Last Resort · 13 maps
AnubisThe Last Resort ban
50%50%
Misa · 20 mapsnearly even +0%The Last Resort · 4 maps
MirageThe Last Resort ban
42%40%
Misa · 22 mapsnearly even +2%The Last Resort · 1 map
Cachepossible decider
40%56%
Misa · 11 mapsedge The Last Resort +16%The Last Resort · 5 maps
InfernoMisa ban
47%56%
Misa · 11 mapsedge The Last Resort +9%The Last Resort · 5 maps
AncientMisa ban
50%47%
Misa · 2 mapsnearly even +3%The Last Resort · 11 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMisa remove Ancient
2. BanThe Last Resort remove Mirage
3. PickMisa take Dust2
4. PickThe Last Resort take Nuke
5. BanThe Last Resort remove Anubis
6. BanMisa remove Inferno
DeciderCache (40% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Misa 53%The Last Resort 47%
The model gave 53% on Misa — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Last Resort · 56%
Series resultThe Last Resort 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1