European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Misa#115 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
WBT#108 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2WBT ban
65%50%
Misa · 13 mapsedge Misa +15%WBT · 2 maps
MirageMisa pick
46%57%
Misa · 9 mapsedge WBT +11%WBT · 3 maps
Nukepossible decider
46%40%
Misa · 9 mapsedge Misa +6%WBT · 1 map
InfernoWBT ban
40%50%
Misa · 6 mapsedge WBT +10%WBT · 0 maps
AnubisMisa ban
38%60%
Misa · 4 mapsedge WBT +22%WBT · 1 map
OverpassWBT pick
33%67%
Misa · 2 mapsedge WBT +34%WBT · 2 maps
AncientMisa ban
50%33%
Misa · 0 mapsedge Misa +17%WBT · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMisa remove Ancient
2. BanWBT remove Dust2
3. PickMisa take Mirage
4. PickWBT take Overpass
5. BanWBT remove Inferno
6. BanMisa remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (46% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:6
Misa 26%WBT 74%
The model gave 74% on WBT — the map was taken by Misa.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
Misa 67%WBT 33%
The model gave 67% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Model check result
Model favoriteMisa · 54%
Series resultMisa 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2