ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Misa#115 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
WBT#108 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
52%58%
Misa · 27 mapsedge WBT +6%WBT · 8 maps
MirageWBT pick
41%64%
Misa · 18 mapsedge WBT +23%WBT · 7 maps
AnubisWBT ban
50%50%
Misa · 12 mapsnearly even +0%WBT · 4 maps
NukeMisa ban
47%40%
Misa · 13 mapsedge Misa +7%WBT · 1 map
InfernoWBT ban
54%50%
Misa · 9 mapsnearly even +4%WBT · 0 maps
CacheMisa ban
40%40%
Misa · 6 mapsnearly even +0%WBT · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
56%60%
Misa · 5 mapsnearly even -4%WBT · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMisa remove Nuke
2. BanWBT remove Inferno
3. PickMisa take Dust2
4. PickWBT take Mirage
5. BanWBT remove Anubis
6. BanMisa remove Cache
DeciderDefault (56% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct10:13
Misa 47%WBT 53%
The model gave 53% on WBT — the map was taken by WBT.
Cacheprediction missed11:13
Misa 53%WBT 47%
The model gave 53% on Misa — the map was taken by WBT.
Model check result
Model favoriteMisa · 52%
Series resultWBT 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2