PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Monte#23 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
G2#7 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Monte pick
50%40%
Monte · 4 mapsedge Monte +10%G2 · 6 maps
AncientG2 pick
50%71%
Monte · 2 mapsedge G2 +21%G2 · 3 maps
Miragepossible decider
60%38%
Monte · 1 mapedge Monte +22%G2 · 4 maps
InfernoMonte ban
50%43%
Monte · 0 mapsedge Monte +7%G2 · 3 maps
NukeG2 ban
43%50%
Monte · 3 mapsedge G2 +7%G2 · 0 maps
OverpassMonte ban
40%67%
Monte · 1 mapedge G2 +27%G2 · 2 maps
AnubisG2 ban
60%50%
Monte · 1 mapedge Monte +10%G2 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMonte remove Overpass
2. BanG2 remove Nuke
3. PickMonte take Dust2
4. PickG2 take Ancient
5. BanG2 remove Anubis
6. BanMonte remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (60% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct2:13
Monte 26%G2 74%
The model gave 74% on G2 — the map was taken by G2.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
Monte 63%G2 37%
The model gave 63% on Monte — the map was taken by G2.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 · 60%
Series resultG2 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2