IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Monte#23 in the world · win 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
paiN#29 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukepaiN pick
38%55%
Monte · 4 mapsedge paiN +17%paiN · 7 maps
Dust2Monte ban
40%63%
Monte · 6 mapsedge paiN +23%paiN · 4 maps
OverpassMonte ban
40%50%
Monte · 1 mapedge paiN +10%paiN · 6 maps
MirageMonte pick
63%50%
Monte · 4 mapsedge Monte +13%paiN · 2 maps
Anubispossible decider
60%63%
Monte · 1 mapnearly even -3%paiN · 4 maps
AncientpaiN ban
50%50%
Monte · 4 mapsnearly even +0%paiN · 0 maps
InfernopaiN ban
50%40%
Monte · 0 mapsedge Monte +10%paiN · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMonte remove Overpass
2. BanpaiN remove Ancient
3. PickMonte take Mirage
4. PickpaiN take Nuke
5. BanpaiN remove Inferno
6. BanMonte remove Dust2
DeciderAnubis (60% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:5
Monte 31%paiN 69%
The model gave 69% on paiN — the map was taken by Monte.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
Monte 31%paiN 69%
The model gave 69% on paiN — the map was taken by Monte.
Model check result
Model favoritepaiN · 53%
Series resultMonte 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2