ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ NXT#142 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BAKS#99 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheBAKS pick
53%60%
MOUZ NXT · 11 mapsedge BAKS +7%BAKS · 6 maps
Dust2MOUZ NXT ban
21%56%
MOUZ NXT · 10 mapsedge BAKS +35%BAKS · 5 maps
MirageBAKS ban
25%43%
MOUZ NXT · 12 mapsedge BAKS +18%BAKS · 3 maps
NukeMOUZ NXT pick
67%43%
MOUZ NXT · 11 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +24%BAKS · 3 maps
Ancientpossible decider
67%71%
MOUZ NXT · 5 mapsnearly even -4%BAKS · 3 maps
InfernoMOUZ NXT ban
40%50%
MOUZ NXT · 1 mapedge BAKS +10%BAKS · 4 maps
AnubisBAKS ban
50%50%
MOUZ NXT · 4 mapsnearly even +0%BAKS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ NXT remove Inferno
2. BanBAKS remove Anubis
3. PickMOUZ NXT take Nuke
4. PickBAKS take Cache
5. BanBAKS remove Mirage
6. BanMOUZ NXT remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (67% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed11:13
MOUZ NXT 75%BAKS 25%
The model gave 75% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by BAKS.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
MOUZ NXT 16%BAKS 84%
The model gave 84% on BAKS — the map was taken by BAKS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBAKS · 63%
Series resultBAKS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2