ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ NXT#142 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Entropy#132 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMOUZ NXT ban
27%53%
MOUZ NXT · 11 mapsedge Entropy +26%Entropy · 26 maps
CacheEntropy pick
50%50%
MOUZ NXT · 10 mapsnearly even +0%Entropy · 14 maps
Dust2Entropy ban
21%22%
MOUZ NXT · 10 mapsnearly even -1%Entropy · 14 maps
AncientMOUZ NXT pick
75%52%
MOUZ NXT · 4 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +23%Entropy · 17 maps
AnubisMOUZ NXT ban
50%50%
MOUZ NXT · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Entropy · 10 maps
NukeEntropy ban
67%43%
MOUZ NXT · 11 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +24%Entropy · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
67%45%
MOUZ NXT · 2 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +22%Entropy · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ NXT remove Mirage
2. BanEntropy remove Nuke
3. PickMOUZ NXT take Ancient
4. PickEntropy take Cache
5. BanEntropy remove Dust2
6. BanMOUZ NXT remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (67% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:9
MOUZ NXT 53%Entropy 47%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
MOUZ NXT 22%Entropy 78%
The model gave 78% on Entropy — the map was taken by Entropy.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
MOUZ NXT 73%Entropy 27%
The model gave 73% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by Entropy.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntropy · 50%
Series resultEntropy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3