ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · win 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lazer Cats#117 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Lazer Cats ban
30%23%
MOUZ NXT · 6 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +7%Lazer Cats · 9 maps
AncientLazer Cats pick
67%63%
MOUZ NXT · 2 mapsnearly even +4%Lazer Cats · 12 maps
MirageMOUZ NXT ban
25%44%
MOUZ NXT · 8 mapsedge Lazer Cats +19%Lazer Cats · 5 maps
NukeLazer Cats ban
60%57%
MOUZ NXT · 6 mapsnearly even +3%Lazer Cats · 3 maps
InfernoMOUZ NXT ban
50%64%
MOUZ NXT · 0 mapsedge Lazer Cats +14%Lazer Cats · 7 maps
Anubispossible decider
43%43%
MOUZ NXT · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Lazer Cats · 3 maps
CacheMOUZ NXT pick
60%50%
MOUZ NXT · 6 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +10%Lazer Cats · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ NXT remove Inferno
2. BanLazer Cats remove Nuke
3. PickMOUZ NXT take Cache
4. PickLazer Cats take Ancient
5. BanLazer Cats remove Dust2
6. BanMOUZ NXT remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (43% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:11
MOUZ NXT 56%Lazer Cats 44%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
MOUZ NXT 52%Lazer Cats 48%
The model gave 52% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Model check result
Model favoriteLazer Cats · 55%
Series resultMOUZ NXT 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2