CCT 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ursa#88 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Ursa pick
40%78%
MOUZ NXT · 1 mapedge Ursa +38%Ursa · 5 maps
Miragepossible decider
40%57%
MOUZ NXT · 1 mapedge Ursa +17%Ursa · 3 maps
InfernoMOUZ NXT ban
50%43%
MOUZ NXT · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +7%Ursa · 3 maps
NukeMOUZ NXT pick
50%43%
MOUZ NXT · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +7%Ursa · 3 maps
OverpassUrsa ban
50%43%
MOUZ NXT · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +7%Ursa · 3 maps
AncientUrsa ban
60%50%
MOUZ NXT · 1 mapedge MOUZ NXT +10%Ursa · 0 maps
AnubisMOUZ NXT ban
50%60%
MOUZ NXT · 0 mapsedge Ursa +10%Ursa · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ NXT remove Anubis
2. BanUrsa remove Ancient
3. PickMOUZ NXT take Nuke
4. PickUrsa take Dust2
5. BanUrsa remove Overpass
6. BanMOUZ NXT remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (40% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
MOUZ NXT 14%Ursa 86%
The model gave 86% on Ursa — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Mirageprediction correct3:13
MOUZ NXT 36%Ursa 64%
The model gave 64% on Ursa — the map was taken by Ursa.
Nukeprediction missed1:13
MOUZ NXT 57%Ursa 43%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by Ursa.
Model check result
Model favoriteUrsa · 62%
Series resultUrsa 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3