ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
WBT#108 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMOUZ NXT ban
25%60%
MOUZ NXT · 12 mapsedge WBT +35%WBT · 6 maps
Dust2MOUZ NXT ban
46%58%
MOUZ NXT · 9 mapsedge WBT +12%WBT · 8 maps
Ancientpossible decider
57%44%
MOUZ NXT · 3 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +13%WBT · 5 maps
NukeMOUZ NXT pick
55%40%
MOUZ NXT · 7 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +15%WBT · 1 map
AnubisWBT ban
50%43%
MOUZ NXT · 2 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +7%WBT · 3 maps
OverpassWBT pick
29%67%
MOUZ NXT · 3 mapsedge WBT +38%WBT · 2 maps
CacheWBT ban
57%50%
MOUZ NXT · 3 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +7%WBT · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ NXT remove Mirage
2. BanWBT remove Anubis
3. PickMOUZ NXT take Nuke
4. PickWBT take Overpass
5. BanWBT remove Cache
6. BanMOUZ NXT remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (57% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:11
MOUZ NXT 60%WBT 40%
The model gave 60% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Anubisprediction missed2:13
MOUZ NXT 54%WBT 46%
The model gave 54% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by WBT.
Mirageprediction correct2:13
MOUZ NXT 18%WBT 82%
The model gave 82% on WBT — the map was taken by WBT.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ NXT · 51%
Series resultWBT 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3