IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ#3 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
FUT#8 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeMOUZ pick
62%25%
MOUZ · 9 mapsedge MOUZ +37%FUT · 4 maps
OverpassMOUZ ban
67%45%
MOUZ · 5 mapsedge MOUZ +22%FUT · 7 maps
AncientFUT pick
56%70%
MOUZ · 5 mapsedge FUT +14%FUT · 6 maps
Miragepossible decider
64%38%
MOUZ · 7 mapsedge MOUZ +26%FUT · 4 maps
Dust2FUT ban
60%43%
MOUZ · 6 mapsedge MOUZ +17%FUT · 3 maps
InfernoFUT ban
55%50%
MOUZ · 7 mapsedge MOUZ +5%FUT · 0 maps
AnubisMOUZ ban
50%67%
MOUZ · 0 mapsedge FUT +17%FUT · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ remove Anubis
2. BanFUT remove Inferno
3. PickMOUZ take Nuke
4. PickFUT take Ancient
5. BanFUT remove Dust2
6. BanMOUZ remove Overpass
DeciderMirage (64% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
MOUZ 32%FUT 68%
The model gave 68% on FUT — the map was taken by FUT.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
MOUZ 84%FUT 16%
The model gave 84% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
MOUZ 74%FUT 26%
The model gave 74% on MOUZ — the map was taken by FUT.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 64%
Series resultFUT 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3