IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ#3 in the world · win 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Legacy#7 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLegacy pick
70%82%
MOUZ · 6 mapsedge Legacy +12%Legacy · 7 maps
NukeLegacy ban
64%50%
MOUZ · 7 mapsedge MOUZ +14%Legacy · 6 maps
AncientLegacy ban
56%36%
MOUZ · 5 mapsedge MOUZ +20%Legacy · 7 maps
Dust2MOUZ ban
50%73%
MOUZ · 4 mapsedge Legacy +23%Legacy · 7 maps
Infernopossible decider
56%70%
MOUZ · 5 mapsedge Legacy +14%Legacy · 6 maps
OverpassMOUZ pick
75%60%
MOUZ · 4 mapsedge MOUZ +15%Legacy · 1 map
AnubisMOUZ ban
50%60%
MOUZ · 0 mapsedge Legacy +10%Legacy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ remove Anubis
2. BanLegacy remove Ancient
3. PickMOUZ take Overpass
4. PickLegacy take Mirage
5. BanLegacy remove Nuke
6. BanMOUZ remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (56% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
MOUZ 25%Legacy 75%
The model gave 75% on Legacy — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
MOUZ 66%Legacy 34%
The model gave 66% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 53%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2