StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ#3 in the world · win 2:1series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere#10 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNatus Vincere pick
38%29%
MOUZ · 9 mapsedge MOUZ +9%Natus Vincere · 3 maps
MirageMOUZ pick
75%50%
MOUZ · 8 mapsedge MOUZ +25%Natus Vincere · 4 maps
Dust2Natus Vincere ban
57%50%
MOUZ · 10 mapsedge MOUZ +7%Natus Vincere · 0 maps
NukeMOUZ ban
67%50%
MOUZ · 8 mapsedge MOUZ +17%Natus Vincere · 2 maps
Infernopossible decider
75%44%
MOUZ · 4 mapsedge MOUZ +31%Natus Vincere · 5 maps
CacheNatus Vincere ban
50%50%
MOUZ · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Natus Vincere · 0 maps
AnubisMOUZ ban
50%60%
MOUZ · 0 mapsedge Natus Vincere +10%Natus Vincere · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ remove Anubis
2. BanNatus Vincere remove Dust2
3. PickMOUZ take Mirage
4. PickNatus Vincere take Ancient
5. BanNatus Vincere remove Cache
6. BanMOUZ remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (75% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct10:13
MOUZ 47%Natus Vincere 53%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere — the map was taken by Natus Vincere.
Infernoprediction correct13:10
MOUZ 81%Natus Vincere 19%
The model gave 81% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
MOUZ 75%Natus Vincere 25%
The model gave 75% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 72%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3